5/1/2023 0 Comments Phoenix suns jersey![]() ![]() Phoenix ranks 28th in opponent free throw rate, and Gilgeous-Alexander leads the NBA in free throws made. Free Throws, Turnovers, & Offensive Rebounds Isaiah Joe must see heavy minutes tonight because his shooting threat off of a pindown or Spain pick and roll opens up the court for Giddey. If the Thunder are going to win this game, it’s essential that Giddey steps up his scoring by converting his drives and floaters. When Giddey is on the court without Gilgeous-Alexander or Jalen Williams, the offense can get ugly – especially when Dort tries to initiate possessions. Which team will win the key matchups? Check out below for these vital battles. Thunder are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.Thunder are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.Thunder are 44-21-2 ATS in their last 67 road games.Overall, Oklahoma City can keep this game close. If Gilgeous-Alexander sits, the offense assuredly takes a massive hit however, they have had offensive explosions without him (150 points vs Boston) and possess enough playmakers to initiate offense. The young Thunder also thrive at cutting to the basket, and the Suns rank 21st defending cuts. They place tremendous stress on the rim and have playmaking across all positions, which helps explain their 25% open three rate – 3rd highest in the league. On the other end, the Suns likely struggle to handle the Thunder’s fast-paced assault. As a result, they rank 4th defending finishes at the rim and allow the 6th lowest opponent open three rate (per ShotQuality). Oklahoma City will be able to switch all night against this pick and roll heavy Suns team.ĭeandre Ayton poses a problem because of his size and rebounding, but the Thunder do an excellent job showing multiple defenders inside while not abandoning the three-point line. Luguentz Dort, Jalen Williams, and Kenrich Williams can lock down opponents on the perimeter, and Jaylin Williams is radically improving as an interior defender. ![]() They are also 10th in ball screen navigation and 4th in passing lane defense (per BBall Index). It’s difficult for them to improvise because only Chris Paul and Devin Booker can create their own shot off the dribble.Įnter the Thunder, who rank 6th in terms of opponent shot quality via pick and roll ball screens (per ShotQuality). Therefore, teams that defend the point of attack well and switch seamlessly can clog the Suns offense. They rank 22nd in pace, 2nd in midrange frequency, 6th in pick and roll ball screen frequency, and 30th in finishing at the rim frequency. Phoenix is a slow team that grinds out possessions with endless pick and rolls. I also believe the Thunder win this around 28-30% of the time, so their +295 moneyline is solid. Still, +8.5 is too many points to give this Thunder squad, so I’m taking Oklahoma City to cover. Gilgeous-Alexander is questionable, but I don’t expect him to play. It’s a back-to-back for Oklahoma City with yesterday’s game in Utah going to overtime, and Phoenix is a tough opponent even without Kevin Durant. Phoenix, meanwhile, is 11th with a 53.3 cover percentage. The Thunder lead the league with a 62.5 cover percentage, and they are 44-21-2 ATS in their last 67 road games. Oklahoma City needs to win this game at least 26% of the time for their +295 moneyline to hold a positive expected value. The Suns are a considerable favorite as the spread is -8 with a -340 moneyline. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |